Bitcoin continues to consolidate between $95,000-$97,000 after pulling back from its January high of $109,300. Amid this sideways price action, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju forecasts a potential 30% drop to $77,000 before the bull market regains momentum.
According to Ju's analysis shared on Wednesday, such a decline would mirror previous market cycles and not signal the end of the current bull run. "I don't think we'll enter a bear market this year. We're still in a bull cycle. The price would eventually go up, but the range seems broad," he stated.
The CEO's prediction stems from analyzing Bitcoin's realized price metric across different market participants. Data shows ETF custodians and major institutions have an average cost basis around $89,000, while Binance traders and mining companies entered at $59,000 and $57,000 respectively.
Historical patterns indicate that when prices fall below major miners' breakeven points, it often marks the final phase of a correction before renewed upward momentum. Ju referenced similar patterns from previous downturns in May 2022, March 2020, and November 2018.
Other experts point to additional factors that could pressure Bitcoin lower, including tightening fiat liquidity and U.S. policy uncertainty. Former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes suggests disappointment in the Trump administration's cryptocurrency stance could push prices to the $70,000-$75,000 range.
Despite near-term bearish predictions, long-term sentiment remains positive. CryptoQuant analyst Timo Oinonen notes that Bitcoin has only risen 63% since the April 2024 halving, compared to the 686% surge following the 2020 halving - indicating substantial room for growth.
At press time, Bitcoin trades at $95,695, up 1.43% in the past 24 hours as market participants closely watch for directional cues.