A leading cryptocurrency prediction platform Polymarket has increased its forecast for a U.S. Solana ETF approval by 2025 to 84%, up from 77% at the start of January.
VanEck's head of research Matthew Sigel believes even this upgraded prediction may be too conservative, particularly following Donald Trump's November election victory. Trump has openly advocated for positioning the U.S. as a major cryptocurrency hub.
The rising confidence comes as VanEck and 21Shares await regulatory decisions on their applications to list spot Solana ETFs. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has previously raised questions about Solana's classification, debating whether it should be treated as a security or commodity.
Currently, only Bitcoin and Ether ETFs are allowed to trade on U.S. exchanges, operating under specific commodity-based fund structures. Industry experts suggest Solana ETF approval may hinge on meeting similar regulatory frameworks.
Polymarket, which recorded nearly $2 billion in trading volume this December, has built a reputation for accuracy. The platform's prediction markets notably outperformed traditional polling in forecasting Trump's presidential win and his party's congressional victories.
The platform's latest projections reflect growing industry optimism for 2025, with traders anticipating new cryptocurrency ETF approvals alongside potential record highs for major digital assets like Bitcoin and Ether.
Market observers note that Trump's presidency could accelerate the approval process for various pending cryptocurrency ETFs, potentially reshaping the U.S. digital asset landscape.